Easter Special Thought of the Week

Dear subscriber, thanks for being signed up to my 5 Fact Friday newsletter.

There’s no 5 Fact Friday this week - I did have a few facts lined up, but I considered it all far too gloomy for the Easter bank holiday weekend.

I’m writing this from the road, having been driving a rented luton removal van for 3 days helping family move home. I’m delighted to say that it’s been as happy a move as can be for those concerned.

That’s where the good news ends this week. If you don’t want me to rain on your Easter weekend parade, I’d suggest hitting delete now!

Going to Get Grim.

The UK economy, already in an inexorable slide into oblivion, must now deal with the added curve balls of an energy crisis, inflation, and a financial markets crisis.

It’s like being on a terrifying runaway rollercoaster, and then being hit repeatedly by painful projectiles as you hurtle towards the inevitable crash. I do not exaggerate.

Record (and rising) youth unemployment.

Spiking fuel prices.

Rising mortgage rates.

Food inflation to reach 9% this year.

A banking crisis sparked by the Private Credit (shadow banking) sector.

A government pouring fuel on the fire with every new policy they enact.

I know I have earned a reputation for being the grim reaper when it comes to the economy, but it really is looking as bad as any time since the oil crisis of the 1970s which preceded a prolonger period of high unemployment and stagnation. I was only a kid, but even from the comfort of my wealthy family I could see the hardship everywhere.

We’re in the early days of it yet. There’s far worse to come.

Fuel shortages, energy blackouts, food shortages, all are to be expected in the foreseeable future.

Move, or hunker down until the storm passes.

So what does that mean for your home move?

The only general recommendation I have for everyone is to be ready to batten down the hatches to weather the storm as best you can.

If you are currently in a comfortable place, not unhappy with it and with no pressing need to move, I’d argue it’s too late to sell and buy again, although I wouldn’t rule out selling and renting while the storm passes, if you can sell at all, that is.

If you are not currently in living conditions you’d be happy to be trapped in for the next 5 years (say), and you don’t want to rent, then it’s a good time to be a buyer, although you want to avoid chains if possible, and look for chain free homes for sale.

Nothing here is a recommendation from a financial point of view, because it’s an absolute shit show financially, and I have no recommendation of any kind on that front, save for one: If you are, or expect to be, in a forced-sale position then you need to move as fast as you can. Do not delay, and do not cut corners.

Get your property sale-ready as fast as you can (engage a carefully chosen conveyancer first).

Choose your estate agent as though your future depends on it, because it literally does. (If you choose a mediocre one in this market, you could miss the chance to sell completely, if a full blown financial crisis unfolds).

Do not sign a long sole agency contract whatever you do, whoever you choose. 6 weeks max. You need to be able to change agents if you end up with a bad one.

If buying is a matter of urgency for you, do yourself a favour and start by getting yourself a formal mortgage offer, so that you know your rate, and you can make offers with the confidence of your finances in place. If you don’t have a whole-market, independent mortgage broker who you are certain you can trust, and you don’t know how to find one, you can talk to my partners here. I trust them completely.

Have a Happy Easter anyway!

It’s hard to give my truthful views without sounding like a doom monger, but I’d much rather you were prepared for the worst that doesn’t happen, than unprepared when it does.

In the meantime, I hope you have a weekend to look forward to and can spend it with the people you want to.

PS - In some good news, I’m making real progress on BestAgent. It’s hard work constructing an entire marketplace for home moving, but we’re getting there. I look forward to sharing the news with you here first when there is some.

Have a wonderful weekend.

Charlie

mhwc.co.uk 

linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie