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Welcome to your weekly briefing on important things affecting the housing market.

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This week’s top 5 housing market facts:

1. 6 arrested in fraud investigation into homelessness investment trust
   https://www.perplexity.ai/page/uk-fraud-office-arrests-six-in-gEQQt0NnTKmxJgFfWh3c_Q

2. UK Rents fall for first time on record. Great news all round, further downward pressure on house prices https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-15470117/Rents-fall-annually-time-15-years-Typical-new-tenant-pays-10-month.html

3. Payroll jobs lost at the fastest rate since the pandemic, with net 43,000 more people out of work in one month, at Christmas https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2026

4. Inflation ticks back up, reducing chances of a base rate cut https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/december2025

5. Media goes nuts over Rightmove’s Jan “record jump” in asking prices. No one mentions that their FTB asking prices are lower than a year ago, even after “record jump” https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2026/01/Rightmove-HPI-19-January-Final.pdf

Thought of the Week: The denial around falling rents is even greater than falling house values

Landlords seek high yields in the form of rent. They calculate the price worth paying when they buy the homes on the yields they expect to achieve.

So, when rents fall (as they now are), it means yields fall.

When yields fall, the underlying asset values (house prices) will fall too. It’s mathematical gravity.

This is the latest new layer (of many over the last few years) of downward pressure on house prices, mostly at the first time buyer level too. Easing rents is obviously good news for tenants, but the reasons rents are falling (as well as house prices, which is real recession territory) is not good:

The economy, jobs and wages are all getting weaker, and these are the primary drivers of housing demand.

I’m old enough to remember the 90s (they began when I was 18) and that was the last time that both rents and house values fell at the same time.

Which means we really are in a real recession (whatever the joke ONS GDP figures may say) which means that, compounded with ever increasing tax raises and minimum wage increases (which reduce employment), I fear we have a long way further to slide.

For those fortunate enough to be insulated from these unpleasant things, it means affording somewhere to live will continue to get easier, not harder, for some time whether renting or buying (unless Stiggy is right and mortgage rates go back up this year).

Cash will continue to devalue, liquid assets will benefit from this and appreciate.

Owning a home (as opposed to buying) is still horribly expensive and not yet getting any cheaper, which is yet further downward pressure on house values.

So - buyers can peruse at leisure, and those who know how and put the legwork in will find the bargains. Renters might even be able to negotiate rent reductions if their landlords fear a long void period if they leave.

Tough times for sellers, housebuilders and landlords. It’ll sort the wheat from the chaff and the grifters peddling cheap tat should hopefully disappear.

But, to wrap up, it’s astonishing that the media keep pumping the “record, up, to the moon” narrative, when one look beyond the headlines (and for those wise enough to ignore averages) it is painfully clear that house values (not prices) are sliding and will for some time.

We wont see house values increase for a very long time.

In case you missed anything this week…

FTB asking prices have actually fallen!

Housing Stig in the House: Bond Markets Chaos, Plunging Employment

Most viewed post this week on X:

Most viewed video this week on TikTok:

@movinghomewithcharlie

Unlock Economic Growth: Scrap Stamp Duty Now!

That’s all for this week!

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Have a great weekend, lots of love and luck to you all.

Charlie