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Welcome to your weekly briefing on important things affecting the housing market.

As a subscriber, the facts hit your inbox first. BUT it is always worth tuning into the live stream, as there may be a couple of last-minute additions. Find the live stream here:

Remember: If you’ve recently rented, bought or sold a home, please report your price to the BestAgent Public House Price Index.

This week’s top 5 housing market facts:

1. 20% of million pound homes selling at a loss
   https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/one-in-five-million-pound-homes-selling-at-a-loss/

2. 500 mortgage deals pulled in war turmoil https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24dm9vgrz7o

3. Rental market weakest since pre pandemic era with demand down -14% https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/rental-market-report/

4. RICS Feb report shows big drop in buyer demand https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/UK-Residential-Market-Survey_February-2026.pdf

5. Retail employment hits record low https://www.perplexity.ai/page/uk-retail-hits-record-low-empl-hDjKlj4pTk694IDEqESLPw

6. Private Credit is the new Sub Prime. We’re in pre-crash territory, when most say it’s fine but many warn it’s anything but. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-dumps-after-flagging-30-billion-exposure-private-credit

An Unusually Important Thought of the Week:

If I’ve learned anything from 5 years of an audience on social media, it’s that some people will wilfully misinterpret anything you say. Sometimes they will literally presume the polar opposite of what you say, or intend to say. It’s a truly weird phenomenon, but I have come to accept it.

So, forgive me for spelling this week’s thought out in direct, blunt terms, because misinterpreting this could be disastrous for certain people.

Before I begin, please remember the following:

1. I have no idea who you are or what your circumstances are, so you cannot take anything I say as if it’s advice meant for you, because it isn’t. OK? OK.

2. I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen, or not happen, in relation to any of the things I’m about to talk about. I am an unqualified, under-informed, random bloke on the internet who may have a little bit of relevant experience which may be of some use to some people. You shouldn’t read anything I say as if it’s credible or relevant or valuable.

3. Whatever happens in the markets will be good for some and bad for others. That’s how it always goes. Generally speaking though, it tends to go better for those who pay attention to what’s happening, and it tends to go worse for those who dismiss important events as irrelevant to them. So, pick your perspective carefully, if you’re reading this in the context of moving house.

4. You and you alone are responsible for any and all of the consequences, good or bad, of any decisions you make for yourself. If this sounds surprising or uncomfortable to you, if you haven’t already realised this, I urge you not to make any major decisions at all, until you have accepted responsibility for the outcomes. There’s no use blaming strangers when things go wrong with decisions you made that the strangers were unaware of.

Another thing I’ve learned is that no good deed goes unpunished, so I fully expect havoc to be wrought for me as a consequence of this post, but it’s worth it.

Why? Because (and here’s the thing that drives me most of all) every day, thousands of people are tricked into making very bad decisions, and it seriously pisses me off. I cannot understand the mentality of people who would knowingly inflict financial harm on someone else in order to hit their own sales targets. That kind of approach is how you end up with the Post Office scandal.

So to me, the flack I receive for my posts is worth it, because I know (thanks to so many of you who are kind enough to take the time to tell me) that my content makes a difference, and saves some people from being ripped off or making grave mistakes.

Anyway, enough pre-amble. This isn’t about me, but I needed to get all that out there. Here’s the actual thought of the week:

Life-ruining negative equity risks are at their highest level since the 2008 crisis, due to war and financial market tremors.

Understand this before buying a home with a mortgage in 2026. If you don’t or can’t understand it then don’t buy.

We all have different personal situations which affect us when moving. Finances, job security, age, dependents, stability or instability, relationships, plans, risk appetites, loan size, the list goes on.

The TL;DR (Too Long, Didn’t Read) of all this is: Most people who properly understand the financial markets, especially bonds, gilts, swaps, energy and inflation, are discussing not if there’s going to be a financial crisis, but how big the one that’s already started will be by the time it’s fully played out. Few of them, if any, would be taking out a large loan-to-value mortgage to buy a house right now. They’d laugh at the idea.

Even before the war in Iran kicked off, there were major cracks and strains showing in the private debt markets that threaten to spread and impact liquidity, or banks ability to lend, eventually. Meaning that in some markets, house prices were already expected to come down even before war broke out.

When you add in the effects of war (spiralling oil and energy prices, spiking bond yields, rising mortgage rates, inflation) it’s just multiplying the risks.

But the majority of would-be home buyers are unaware of this, have been saving and looking for a home for years, don’t really care about world events or financial markets and just want to get on with their lives.

For some, buying now, even with a large mortgage, will work out fine if they’re happy where they live and don’t need to sell for any reason for the next 20 years or so.

But, if the worst happens this year, as many high profile commentators expect, then there will be some who have bought, or are about to buy, for whom it will turn out to have been a huge mistake.

The worst case scenario is buying with a high LTV mortgage (eg 90 or 95% mortgage), paying a toppy price, then unexpectedly needing to sell within the next few years after prices have crashed. These unfortunate souls will be unable to sell their homes, as the market value will no longer cover the outstanding amount on their mortgage.

Should the very worst happen, and they lose their jobs and ability to pay the mortgage, they will eventually find themselves evicted, homeless and with a large debt still to pay.

This happens to thousands of people, and it’s life ruining. Families are broken up. Some are even pushed to suicide.

If even one person rethinks their plans in such a way that it avoids this outcome, as a result of reading this, then this was worth the time taken to write it.

What if there’s no financial crisis in the end, and we don’t buy and wish we had?

This is why I always say, if you have found a home you want to live in, can afford, and plan to stay for a long time (10 years or more), then always buy, as long as you aren’t overpaying. There are people who wait forever to buy, never do, or miss the market and wish they had, and this is an equally valid risk.

However, with the economy struggling, unemployment rising and mortgages getting more expensive, the risks of missing out on a home are lower.

If you ARE buying and need a mortgage, don’t delay, as rates are rising, and mortgage availability may get worse.

For those who have considered and assessed the risks of a financial crisis and decided to proceed with buying a home in any case, I would recommend getting a mortgage offer locked in without delay. For as long as the war rumbles on, mortgage rates are due to rise significantly, and it may even get harder to get a mortgage at all, especially if there is a financial crisis. If you don’t already have a broker you know and trust, I work with a hand-picked mortgage broking firm who I trust completely and have been looking after my audience for 4 years. You can reach them here.

Undecided or don’t know how to proceed?

If you want to book a call with me directly, you can book a 45 minute private video meeting with me here, and I will help you work out your options.

Finally: Watch “The Big Short” if you haven’t. Really.

If you’re completely unfamiliar with how a financial crisis works and what happens when they do occur, and you haven’t watched The Big Short, I recommend watching it.

In case you missed anything this week…

War Sparks Mortgage Market Mayhem

Credit Crunch Crash Crisis Conditions: Is It Too Dangerous To Buy?

Most viewed post this week on X:

Most viewed video this week on TikTok:

@movinghomewithcharlie

Lower launch price often leads to a higher sale price

That’s all for this week!

Thank you so much for subscribing. Please do give me any feedback you have by replying to this email.

Have a great weekend, lots of love and luck to you all.

Charlie