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Welcome to your weekly briefing on important things affecting the housing market.

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This week’s top 5 housing market facts:

1. Daily Mail reports “Full blown London house price crash”
   https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-15456103/Proof-London-prices-crashing-reveal-types-homes-fallen-50.html

2. 15% of London sellers now selling at a loss, agents report after the fact when it’s too late for many. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-15449095/London-homeowners-likely-sell-loss-UK.html

3. BBC platforms lending expert’s useless predictions of “booming” mortgage market https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gv7vl06e1o

4. London new housebuilding collapses 72% to lowest since WW2 in one year under Labour and Khan https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-housing-new-homes-sadiq-khan-rent-mortgages-b1266079.html

5. House price falls are expected in all areas of England in the next 3 months, except for northwest, say RICS surveyors. https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey-december-2025.pdf

Thought of the Week:

The Darkness and The Light ahead.

For those who have been saving, got a mortgage approved in principle, and are ready to go out and buy their first home, conditions haven’t been better for some years.

Overall there is more property for sale, more choice for buyers, than at any time in the last 10 years at least, and that’s set to increase as more and more forced sellers come to the market.

On top of that, in most places, average salaries have been climbing faster than house prices for several years now, meaning that affordability (while still a long way from reasonable) has improved, and looks like it will continue to improve.

The prospects for those who’ve striven to get themselves into a position to buy a home to live in, it’s going to be easier than any time in the last 10 years to do so.

For those people, the ones who just want a home, this is indeed very, very good news (even if there’s no house price growth to come).

There is genuine light ahead, as long as they don’t overpay or fall into any of the other such traps that can ruin a purchase.

But there is a flip side to this coin, a cloud to this silver lining.

I fear that the number of people in a position to buy a home, with a mortgage, which relies on them having a job, is falling fast, because of rising unemployment.

As reported in the Telegraph this week, there’s been a 19% jump in enquiries for redundancy insurance compared to a year ago, as people start to take defensive measures against expected job losses.

In addition to that, the Bank of England today announced that lenders are expecting demand for mortgages to fall, which is surprising from some perspectives, but signals a serious further weakening in the jobs market.

This means that many who have been saving for years and may even have enough for their deposit, if they lose their jobs, will miss the opportunity to buy a home, and be trapped in rented accommodation, or with family. Having their dream snatched from under their noses at the last minute through no fault of their own will be brutal.

As Stiggy has often said, we are headed towards a scenario of the haves and the have nots, if employment conditions worsen.

For those living in homes they can no longer afford to own, heat and maintain, who are sitting on the market, chasing it down, or waiting for the ‘spring bounce’ which won’t materialise this year, it’s going to be a case of death by a thousand price cuts, and wishing they had taken the loss and got out early, rather than wait for the market to come back, when it’s not going to.

As I posted this week, I think Grade II listed homes have become a maintenance millstone and are no longer economical. Many will simply crumble away, unsaleable and unrentable from 2028 when minimum EPC C rules for landlords come in.

So, for buyers with secure jobs, it’s generally looking rosier every passing month (as long as you’re not expecting to make any money from buying).

But for others, it’s looking increasingly bleak and dark, and I fear that this group, in the darkness, will be growing faster than the ones in the light.

I hope I’m wrong.

But have a lovely weekend anyway! Sorry for the genuine gloominess, but I only know how to say what I really thing.

See you soon, have a great weekend, Charlie

In case you missed anything this week…

The End of Bad Estate Agency (and Overvaluing)

“LONDON PRICES ARE CRASHING” - Where does it go from here?

Most viewed post this week on X:

Most viewed video this week on TikTok:

@movinghomewithcharlie

Deals taking too long? Solve the long sole agency contracts problem.

Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even

In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.

Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.

But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.

So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.

In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.

But billionaires have long diversified a slice of their portfolios with one asset class that is poised to rebound.

It’s post war and contemporary art.

Sounds crazy, but over 70,000 investors have followed suit since 2019—with Masterworks.

You can invest in shares of artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.

24 exits later, results speak for themselves: net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*

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_{*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.}

That’s all for this week!

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Have a great weekend, lots of love and luck to you all.

Charlie