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Welcome to your weekly briefing on important things affecting the housing market.

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This week’s top 5 housing market facts:

1. Institute of Directors confidence survey hits all time low, even lower than the pandemic.
   https://www.iod.com/news/uk-economy/iod-press-release-economic-confidence-plummets-to-all-time-low/

2. Nationwide & Halifax show July Index Prices Increasing
   https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-edges-higher-in-july
   https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/july-2025-halifax-house-price-index.pdf

3. The Times reports thousands of Help to Buy buyers have lost money on their homes and are being forced back into renting. “11,452 (35%) of flat owners in England have repaid their Help to Buy loans at a lower value than they borrowed between 2013-14 and the end of 2023-24”. Translation: 35% of flats bought in the last 12 years have sold for a loss.
   https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/i-wish-i-had-never-bought-my-help-to-buy-flat-its-lost-40k-fgkvcqlmx

4. Further Tax Hikes Inevitable after Reeves’ mismanagement leaves £50bn shortfall
   https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-taxes-spending-cuts-budget-b2802222.html

5. Bank of England votes 5-4 to cut Base Rate to 4%. No biggie.

Charlie's Thought of the Week:

First Time Buyers, beware the silent stalker, Negative Equity.

The blind desperation by most first time buyers to get ‘onto the property ladder’ at any cost, is reaching fever peak as it always does before a severe downturn. At a glance, the housing market would appear to be tottering along ok, prices mainly flatlining as wages rise, affordability gradually improving, at least on a national average scale. But as ever, the averages mask what’s really going on in the market of a million anecdotes: The vast, under-informed majority of FTBs are being tricked into overpaying for their homes, at what could prove to be the worst possible time, if the economy continues to tank as it seems it will. With further tax rises a near-certainty in October, and as AI continues to harvest more and more white collar jobs, all when GDP is already falling, the chances of many of these buyers being caught out is too high for my liking. And the extension to mortgage multiples and terms is only making it worse, wish some being able to borrow 6 x salary with just a 2.5% deposit. Negative equity stalks its victims silently, in advance. I’m not saying don’t buy a home, if you want one. But, as the 45% of Help to Buy victims who’ve sold in the last year for less than they paid have discovered, house prices do not always go up. First time buyers, beware. If in doubt, walk away. There will always be another opportunity.

In case you missed anything this week…

The cost of believing house prices only go up: Forced renting.

Will looming tax rises affect mortgages and housing affordability?

Most viewed post this week on X:

Most viewed video this week on TikTok:

@movinghomewithcharlie

Connells exposed: their property tactics!

That’s all for this week!

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Have a great weekend, lots of love and luck to you all.

Charlie